Modesto Home Prices: $446K, Down 0.6% — 7 ZIPs Analyzed (2026)
$446,130. That’s what a typical home costs in Modesto right now — and it’s actually less than it was a year ago.
The Central Valley city saw prices dip 0.6% year over year through February 2026. Not a crash. Not a boom. A market that’s essentially treading water while the rest of California figures out what it’s doing.
Quick answer: The average home price in Modesto, CA is $446,130 as of February 2026, down 0.6% year over year according to Zillow.
Current Home Prices in Modesto
Here’s where the Modesto market stands right now:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $446,130 |
| Year-over-Year Change | -0.6% |
| Lowest ZIP Median | $373,035 |
| Highest ZIP Median | $519,171 |
| Number of ZIPs Tracked | 7 |
| Data as of | February 2026 |
That 0.6% annual decline works out to roughly $2,700 lost in home value over twelve months. For a homeowner, that’s a rounding error. For a buyer, it means the market isn’t running away from you.
The spread between the cheapest and most expensive ZIP codes is $146,136. That’s a meaningful gap for a mid-sized city — you can buy in one part of Modesto for $373K or pay $519K a few miles away. Location still matters here.
Compared to California’s coastal markets, Modesto remains a fraction of the cost. The Bay Area is two hours west and three times the price. Sacramento, an hour north, runs higher too. Modesto’s position in the Central Valley keeps it accessible for buyers priced out of larger metro areas.
Modesto Home Prices by Neighborhood
All seven tracked ZIP codes in Modesto, ranked by median home value:
| ZIP Code | Median Home Value | Monthly Rent |
|---|---|---|
| 95356 | $519,171 | $2,225 |
| 95357 | $501,387 | Data not available |
| 95355 | $486,348 | $2,140 |
| 95358 | $428,114 | Data not available |
| 95350 | $423,492 | $1,937 |
| 95354 | $391,361 | $1,779 |
| 95351 | $373,035 | $1,667 |
Most Expensive ZIPs
95356 — $519,171. The priciest ZIP in Modesto sits 16% above the city median, with rents to match at $2,225/month.
95357 — $501,387. At 12% above the city average, this area commands a premium despite no tracked rent data available.
95355 — $486,348. Homes here run about $40K above the Modesto median, and rent sits at $2,140/month — the second-highest in the city.
Most Affordable ZIPs
95351 — $373,035. The cheapest entry point in Modesto, priced 16% below the city median. Rent here is just $1,667/month.
95354 — $391,361. At 12% below the median, this ZIP offers rents of $1,779/month — reasonable for the area.
95350 — $423,492. Still below the city average by about $23K, with $1,937/month rents landing in the middle of the pack.
Rent vs Buy in Modesto
Renting wins on monthly cost in Modesto right now. Here’s the math.
The median rent across the five ZIPs with data is roughly $1,950/month. A mortgage on the median-priced home of $446,130 — assuming 20% down, a 6.8% rate, and 30-year fixed — puts the principal and interest payment around $2,330/month. Add property taxes and insurance, and you’re looking at roughly $2,700/month or more.
That’s a gap of about $750/month favoring renters.
| ZIP | Monthly Rent | Est. Mortgage Payment* |
|---|---|---|
| 95356 | $2,225 | ~$3,390 |
| 95355 | $2,140 | ~$3,175 |
| 95350 | $1,937 | ~$2,765 |
| 95354 | $1,779 | ~$2,555 |
| 95351 | $1,667 | ~$2,435 |
*Estimated monthly P&I + taxes/insurance assuming 20% down, 6.8% rate.
The rent-to-buy gap is widest in the expensive ZIPs. In 95356, you’d pay over $1,100 more per month to own. In 95351, the gap narrows to around $770. None of these ZIPs reach the point where buying is cheaper month-to-month — but ownership builds equity, which the spreadsheet alone doesn’t capture.
Population Growth and Migration
Modesto is growing, but barely.
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 218,717 |
| 2021 | 218,657 |
| 2022 | 218,578 |
| 2023 | 219,432 |
| 2024 | 220,592 |
The city added 1,875 residents between 2020 and 2024 — a 0.9% increase over four years. That’s not exactly a surge. Modesto actually lost population in 2021 and 2022 before reversing course.
How does that compare to peers?
| City | 2024 Population | 4-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Bakersfield | 417,468 | 3.0% |
| Sacramento | 535,798 | 1.9% |
| San Diego | 1,404,452 | 1.4% |
| Fresno | 550,105 | 1.4% |
| Modesto | 220,592 | 0.9% |
| Oakland | 443,554 | 0.6% |
Modesto grows faster than Oakland but trails every other comparison city. Bakersfield is adding people at more than three times the rate. Sacramento nearly doubles Modesto’s growth.
Slow population growth means slow demand pressure on housing. That helps explain why prices are flat rather than climbing — there simply aren’t enough new residents moving in to push values up significantly.
Modesto Housing Market Trends
Here’s how the median home value moved month by month over the past year:
| Month | Median Value | Change from Prior Month |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | $448,914 | — |
| Apr 2025 | $448,262 | -$652 |
| May 2025 | $447,862 | -$400 |
| Jun 2025 | $447,128 | -$734 |
| Jul 2025 | $445,798 | -$1,330 |
| Aug 2025 | $444,226 | -$1,572 |
| Sep 2025 | $443,421 | -$805 |
| Oct 2025 | $443,237 | -$184 |
| Nov 2025 | $443,826 | +$589 |
| Dec 2025 | $444,753 | +$927 |
| Jan 2026 | $445,629 | +$876 |
| Feb 2026 | $446,130 | +$501 |
The trend tells two stories. From March through October 2025, Modesto prices slid for seven straight months, dropping from $448,914 to $443,237 — a decline of $5,677.
Then the market turned. November through February brought four consecutive months of gains, recovering $2,893 of that lost ground. The dip-and-recovery pattern suggests the market found a floor around $443K in late fall.
The monthly gains are slowing, though. November added $589, December $927, January $876, and February just $501. The rebound is losing momentum.
Is Modesto a Good Place to Buy in 2026?
The data points to a neutral market — neither strongly favoring buyers nor sellers.
On the buyer’s side: prices are down 0.6% year over year, the monthly gains are decelerating, and population growth is minimal. You’re not competing against a wave of new arrivals. The cheapest ZIPs offer homes under $400K, which is unusual for California.
On the seller’s side: the four-month recovery streak shows demand hasn’t disappeared. Prices never fell dramatically — the peak-to-trough drop was just 1.3%. And Modesto remains a value play for Bay Area commuters and remote workers who want California without the California price tag.
If you’re buying, you have time. This isn’t a market where waiting a month costs you $20K. If you’re selling, price realistically — the days of easy appreciation are on pause.
Modesto Housing Market Outlook for 2026-2027
The three-month trend shows Modesto recovering at a decreasing rate. November through January averaged about $800/month in gains. February slowed to $501.
If the current pace continues, prices may drift sideways through spring and summer 2026, hovering in the $445K–$450K range. The seasonal pattern visible in the data — prices peaked in spring 2025, bottomed in fall, and recovered in winter — could repeat.
A return to the March 2025 high of $448,914 is plausible by mid-2026, but a breakout above $450K would require stronger demand than the data currently shows. With population growth under 1% and year-over-year prices still negative, the most likely scenario is continued stability with modest fluctuations.
Similar Markets in CA
If you’re considering Modesto, these California cities offer their own price points worth comparing:
- Bakersfield — Growing faster than Modesto at 3.0% population growth, with a larger population base of 417K.
- Fresno — Another Central Valley city with 550K residents and 1.4% growth, making it a close regional comparison.
- Fontana — An Inland Empire alternative for buyers looking at Southern California options.
- Riverside — Similar to Modesto in offering California living at below-coastal prices.
- Long Beach — A step up in price and urban amenities for those willing to pay more for LA County proximity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average home price in Modesto?
The average home price in Modesto is $446,130 as of February 2026. Prices vary widely by ZIP code, from $373,035 in 95351 to $519,171 in 95356. That’s a $146K spread across the city.
Are home prices going up or down in Modesto?
Year over year, prices are down 0.6%. But the monthly trend has reversed — Modesto has posted four straight months of gains from November 2025 through February 2026. The annual number is still negative, but the short-term direction is up.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Modesto?
Renting is cheaper. The median rent across tracked ZIPs is roughly $1,950/month, while a mortgage on a median-priced home runs about $2,700/month with taxes and insurance. That’s a $750/month difference. Buying builds equity over time, but the monthly savings from renting are real.
What is the most affordable neighborhood in Modesto?
ZIP code 95351 is the most affordable at $373,035 — that’s 16% below the city median. Rent there averages $1,667/month, also the lowest in the city. It’s the clearest entry point for budget-conscious buyers.
Methodology
Home values are based on the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed measure of typical home values in the 35th to 65th percentile range. Rent estimates use the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Population figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2020-2024 vintage). All datasets are publicly available. Housing data updated 2026-02-28.