Tracy Home Prices: $798K, Down 5.8% — 4 ZIPs Analyzed (2026)

Prices dropped for the tenth straight month in Tracy. The typical home here now costs $798,329, down 5.8% from a year ago. That’s a loss of roughly $49,000 in value over twelve months. For buyers who’ve been priced out of the Bay Area, the question is whether this slide has further to go.

Quick answer: The average home price in Tracy, CA is $798,329 as of February 2026, down 5.8% year over year according to Zillow.

Current Home Prices in Tracy

Tracy sits in the Stockton metro area, about 60 miles east of San Jose. It has long served as a commuter city for Bay Area workers looking for more house per dollar. That value proposition is shifting.

The $329,105 spread between the cheapest and most expensive ZIP codes tells you Tracy is not one market. The west side of the city sells for nearly $330K less than the newer developments to the east and south.

A year ago, the top-end ZIP was above $1 million. It no longer is. Every ZIP in Tracy has lost value since spring 2025, with the most expensive areas falling the hardest in absolute dollars.

Tracy Home Prices by Neighborhood

Tracy has four ZIP codes tracked by Zillow. Here’s how they compare:

Most Expensive

95391 leads at $922,929, sitting 15.6% above the city median — yet its rent of $2,882 is not the highest in Tracy, suggesting newer housing stock with lower rental density.

95304 comes in at $910,187, nearly matching 95391 in home values but with noticeably lower rent at $2,763.

Most Affordable

95376 is the clear budget option at $593,824 — roughly $205K below the city median. Rent here is also the lowest at $2,425, making it the most accessible entry point in Tracy.

95377 splits the middle at $766,375, close to the citywide median and carrying the highest rent in Tracy at $2,941. If you’re looking for a rental investment, the rent-to-price ratio here is the most favorable.

Rent vs Buy in Tracy

Renting is cheaper than buying in Tracy right now, and it’s not close.

The average rent across Tracy’s four ZIPs works out to roughly $2,753 per month. A conventional mortgage on an $798,329 home — assuming 20% down ($159,666), a 6.5% rate, and a 30-year term — produces a monthly principal and interest payment of about $4,037. Add property taxes and insurance, and you’re looking at $4,500 or more.

That $1,750 monthly gap means a renter saves over $21,000 per year compared to a buyer. With prices falling 5.8% annually, buyers are also losing equity. The math favors renting in the short term unless you plan to hold the property for many years.

The cheapest ZIP, 95376, narrows the gap. A mortgage on a $594K home runs closer to $3,000 per month — still above that ZIP’s average rent of $2,425, but the difference is more manageable.

Population Growth and Migration

Tracy crossed the 100,000 population mark in 2024. The city has added 6,518 residents since 2020, a 7.0% growth rate over four years.

That 7.0% growth rate outpaces every major California comparison city:

Tracy is growing more than twice as fast as Bakersfield and nearly twelve times faster than Oakland. People are moving here. The consistent annual gains — roughly 1,600 new residents per year — suggest sustained demand for housing, even as prices correct. Population growth at this pace typically puts a floor under prices over time.

Tracy Housing Market Trends

Here’s how Tracy’s median home value has moved over the past 12 months:

The decline has been steady but not steep. The biggest monthly drops came during summer 2025, with $8K-$11K losses each month from May through August. Since October, the pace has slowed to about $2,300 per month.

That deceleration matters. Tracy lost $39K in the first six months of the decline but only $10K in the next six. The market is cooling, not crashing.

Is Tracy a Good Place to Buy in 2026?

The data points to a buyer’s market. Prices are falling, inventory pressure is easing, and the rent-vs-buy gap discourages panic buying. You have time to shop.

But context matters. Tracy’s 7% population growth rate means demand hasn’t disappeared — it’s just not keeping up with supply at current price levels. The city remains one of the fastest-growing in California.

If you’re buying to live in for 5+ years, the current dip could work in your favor. The $798K median is $49K below last year’s peak. If the decline continues at its recent pace of $2,300 per month, you might see prices in the $770K range by late 2026.

If you’re an investor, the rent yields are thin. A $798K purchase generating $2,753 in rent produces a gross yield of about 4.1% — below current mortgage rates. The numbers don’t pencil out for a buy-and-rent strategy at today’s prices.

Tracy Housing Market Outlook for 2026-2027

The three-month trend through February 2026 shows declines of $2,300 to $2,700 per month. If that pace continues, Tracy’s median could dip below $780K by mid-2026.

The rate of decline has been slowing since summer 2025. Monthly losses shrank from $11K in July to $2,300 in February. If that deceleration holds, prices may stabilize in the $770K-$790K range before any seasonal bounce.

Spring and summer typically bring higher sales volume, which could slow the decline further. But with rates still elevated and the Bay Area tech market in flux, a strong rebound looks unlikely in the near term. The trend suggests a soft landing rather than a sharp correction.

Similar Markets in CA

If you’re exploring alternatives to Tracy, several other California cities offer different price points:

• Bakersfield — A more affordable Central Valley option for buyers who don’t need Bay Area commuting distance.
• Fresno — Similar growth dynamics to Tracy but with a larger metro footprint and typically lower prices.
• Riverside — Southern California’s answer to Tracy: a commuter city with its own price correction story.
• Fontana — Inland Empire pricing that often undercuts Tracy by a wide margin.
• Long Beach — Coastal living at a premium, but worth comparing if you want to see what Bay Area-adjacent money buys elsewhere in the state.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the average home price in Tracy?

The average home price in Tracy is $798,329 as of February 2026. Prices range from $593,824 in ZIP 95376 to $922,929 in ZIP 95391, a spread of about $329K across the city’s four tracked neighborhoods.

Are home prices going up or down in Tracy?

Down. Tracy home prices have declined 5.8% year over year. The median dropped from $847,669 in March 2025 to $798,329 in February 2026. The decline has been continuous — every single month in the past year showed a lower value than the one before it.

Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tracy?

Renting is cheaper. Average rent across Tracy runs about $2,753 per month. A mortgage payment on the median-priced home (20% down, 6.5% rate) comes to roughly $4,037 in principal and interest alone. After taxes and insurance, buying costs about $1,750 more per month than renting.

What is the most affordable neighborhood in Tracy?

ZIP code 95376 is Tracy’s most affordable area, with a median home value of $593,824. That’s $205K below the citywide median. Rent in 95376 is also the lowest at $2,425 per month, making it the best entry point for both buyers and renters.

Methodology

Home values are based on the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed measure of typical home values in the 35th to 65th percentile range. Rent estimates use the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Population figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2020-2024 vintage). All datasets are publicly available. Housing data updated 2026-02-28.