Surprise Home Prices: $410K, Down 2.1% — 5 ZIPs Analyzed (2026)
Can you still afford a house in Surprise? At $409,756, the typical home here costs less than many Phoenix metro suburbs — and prices are falling. The median dropped 2.1% over the past year, giving buyers a rare window in a city that added 23,000 residents since 2020.
Quick answer: The average home price in Surprise, AZ is $409,756 as of February 2026, down 2.1% year over year according to Zillow.
Current Home Prices in Surprise
The Surprise housing market has cooled from its 2025 highs. Here’s where things stand:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $409,756 |
| Year-over-Year Change | -2.1% |
| Lowest ZIP Median | $334,159 |
| Highest ZIP Median | $458,522 |
| ZIP Codes Tracked | 5 |
| Data As Of | February 2026 |
That 2.1% annual decline translates to roughly $8,800 off the typical home price compared to a year ago. Not a crash, but a clear shift in the market’s direction.
The price range across Surprise is wide. A $124,000 gap separates the cheapest ZIP from the most expensive. That means your experience of the Surprise market depends heavily on which neighborhood you’re shopping in.
Prices peaked in March 2025 at $418,734. Since then, the average has shed about $9,000. The decline was steepest through the summer months, with a brief stabilization in the fall before a modest uptick in early 2026.
For buyers, the math is better than it was a year ago. For sellers, the days of automatic appreciation are paused.
Surprise Home Prices by Neighborhood
Five ZIP codes cover the Surprise market. Prices vary by as much as 37% from one end of the city to the other.
| ZIP Code | Median Home Value | Median Rent |
|---|---|---|
| 85387 | $458,522 | $2,140/mo |
| 85388 | $446,276 | $2,179/mo |
| 85379 | $422,523 | $2,020/mo |
| 85374 | $387,299 | $1,721/mo |
| 85378 | $334,159 | $1,863/mo |
Most Expensive
85387 leads at $458,522 — about 12% above the city average, with rents to match at $2,140/month. 85388 follows closely at $446,276 and actually commands the highest rents in the city at $2,179/month. 85379 rounds out the top three at $422,523, sitting just above the city median.
Most Affordable
85378 is the clear budget pick at $334,159, a full 18% below the Surprise average. Despite lower home values, rents here ($1,863/month) sit mid-pack — a sign of strong rental demand relative to prices. 85374 comes in at $387,299, offering a middle ground between affordability and the pricier western ZIPs.
Rent vs Buy in Surprise
Renting wins on monthly cost right now. Here’s the comparison:
| ZIP Code | Median Rent | Est. Mortgage Payment* |
|---|---|---|
| 85387 | $2,140/mo | ~$3,040/mo |
| 85388 | $2,179/mo | ~$2,960/mo |
| 85379 | $2,020/mo | ~$2,800/mo |
| 85374 | $1,721/mo | ~$2,570/mo |
| 85378 | $1,863/mo | ~$2,220/mo |
*Estimated mortgage assumes 20% down, 7% rate, plus 1.3% for property taxes and insurance. Your actual costs will vary.
Across all five ZIPs, renting is cheaper by $350 to $900 per month. The gap is smallest in 85378, where a $334K home produces a relatively modest mortgage. It’s widest in 85387, where the $458K price tag pushes the monthly payment well past $3,000.
The average rent across Surprise is roughly $1,985/month. That buys you flexibility without the maintenance costs. But renters build no equity, and rents can rise. If you plan to stay five or more years, buying starts to make more sense — especially with prices dipping.
Population Growth and Migration
Surprise is one of the fastest-growing cities in the Phoenix metro. The numbers tell the story:
| Year | Population |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 144,393 |
| 2021 | 149,281 |
| 2022 | 154,208 |
| 2023 | 159,128 |
| 2024 | 167,564 |
That’s 16% growth in four years — an average of about 5,800 new residents per year. The pace actually accelerated in 2024, when Surprise added over 8,400 people in a single year.
How does that compare to neighbors?
| City | 2024 Population | 4-Year Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Goodyear | 118,186 | 20.8% |
| Surprise | 167,564 | 16.0% |
| Gilbert | 288,790 | 7.2% |
| Peoria | 199,924 | 4.1% |
| Phoenix | 1,673,164 | 3.8% |
| Glendale | 258,143 | 3.7% |
Only Goodyear is growing faster. Surprise’s growth rate is more than four times that of Phoenix proper.
This population surge puts upward pressure on housing demand. The fact that prices are still declining despite rapid population growth suggests the supply side is keeping up — for now. New construction in the western suburbs has been aggressive. If building slows, expect that equation to shift.
Surprise Housing Market Trends
Month-by-month data reveals a clear pattern: decline through 2025, then a slight stabilization.
| Month | Average Value | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | $418,734 | $339,604 | $464,536 |
| Apr 2025 | $417,020 | $337,948 | $463,170 |
| May 2025 | $415,187 | $336,349 | $461,594 |
| Jun 2025 | $413,472 | $334,974 | $460,138 |
| Jul 2025 | $411,773 | $333,967 | $458,619 |
| Aug 2025 | $410,369 | $333,194 | $457,560 |
| Sep 2025 | $409,456 | $332,819 | $457,093 |
| Oct 2025 | $408,985 | $332,761 | $456,943 |
| Nov 2025 | $408,954 | $333,310 | $457,306 |
| Dec 2025 | $409,258 | $333,841 | $457,690 |
| Jan 2026 | $409,569 | $334,127 | $458,272 |
| Feb 2026 | $409,756 | $334,159 | $458,522 |
The decline was steady and slow — about $1,000 per month from March through October 2025. November marked the bottom at $408,954. Since then, values have crept upward by about $800 over three months.
The high end (85387 area) moved in lockstep with the rest of the market. No ZIP code bucked the trend. That uniformity suggests city-wide market forces — likely interest rates and inventory — rather than neighborhood-specific shifts.
Is Surprise a Good Place to Buy in 2026?
The data points toward a buyer-friendly market. Prices are down 2.1% year over year, and the decline has been gradual rather than sudden. That’s the kind of correction that creates opportunities without signaling panic.
Here’s what works for buyers: prices are off their peak by about $9,000, population growth means long-term demand should hold, and five distinct ZIP codes give you options from $334K to $459K. You can enter the market at different price points without leaving the city.
Here’s the risk: mortgage rates remain high. At 7%, even a $334K home in 85378 costs over $2,200/month. If rates drop, prices could bounce. If they stay elevated, further declines are possible.
For investors, the rental yields are decent. The cheapest ZIP (85378) has a home value of $334K and rents of $1,863/month — a price-to-rent ratio of about 15. That’s not spectacular, but it’s workable.
Surprise favors patient buyers who plan to hold.
Surprise Housing Market Outlook for 2026-2027
The three-month trend since November 2025 shows modest recovery — about $270 per month in appreciation. If that pace continues, Surprise could claw back roughly $1,600 to $3,200 by the end of 2026. That would still leave prices below their March 2025 peak.
The more likely scenario is a sideways market. The data shows price declines slowing, not reversing. Monthly gains of $200-300 don’t signal a new boom. They suggest stabilization.
Population growth is the wild card. If Surprise keeps adding 5,000+ residents per year, housing demand will eventually outpace the current supply response. That could push prices higher in 2027 — but only if construction doesn’t keep pace.
Watch the spring and summer months. Historically, that’s when Phoenix metro markets see the most activity. If Surprise prices hold steady through June 2026, the correction is likely over.
Similar Markets in AZ
If you’re comparing options across Arizona, these cities offer different price points and growth profiles:
- Surprise buyers seeking lower prices might consider Casa Grande, a smaller market south of Phoenix with more affordable housing stock.
- Peoria borders Surprise to the east and offers a similar suburban feel at a comparable price range.
- Glendale sits closer to central Phoenix with more urban amenities and a different price dynamic.
- Mesa is one of the largest East Valley cities and provides a useful benchmark for Surprise values.
- Chandler tends to run higher than Surprise, with a stronger employment base in tech and aerospace.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average home price in Surprise?
The average home price in Surprise is $409,756 as of February 2026. Across five tracked ZIP codes, prices range from $334,159 in the 85378 area to $458,522 in the 85387 area. The city-wide median sits below many other Phoenix metro suburbs.
Are home prices going up or down in Surprise?
Prices are down 2.1% compared to a year ago. The decline was steepest from March to October 2025, dropping about $10,000 over that stretch. Since November, values have stabilized and ticked up slightly — gaining about $800 over the past three months.
Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Surprise?
Renting is cheaper on a monthly basis. The average rent across Surprise runs about $1,985/month, while estimated mortgage payments on a median-priced home exceed $2,700 with taxes and insurance. The gap narrows in the most affordable ZIP (85378), where renting saves you roughly $350/month compared to buying.
What is the most affordable neighborhood in Surprise?
ZIP code 85378 is the most affordable at $334,159 — about $76,000 below the city average. Rents there are $1,863/month, making it the best value in the city on a price-to-rent basis.
Methodology
Home values are based on the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), a smoothed measure of typical home values in the 35th to 65th percentile range. Rent estimates use the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Population figures come from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (2020-2024 vintage). All datasets are publicly available. Housing data updated 2026-02-28.